Modeling and Evaluating Epidemic Control Strategies with High-Order Temporal Networks

Abstract

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are essential measures that reduce and control a severe outbreak or a pandemic, especially in the absence of drug treatments. However, estimating and evaluating their impact on society remains challenging, considering the numerous and closely tied aspects to examine. This article proposes a fine-grain modeling methodology for NPIs, based on high-order relationships between people and environments, mimicking direct and indirect contagion pathways over time. After assessing the ability of each intervention in controlling an epidemic propagation, we devise a multi-objective optimization framework, which, based on the epidemiological data, calculates the NPI combination that should be implemented to minimize the spread of an epidemic as well as the damage due to the intervention. Each intervention is thus evaluated through an agent-based simulation, considering not only the reduction in the fraction of infected but also to what extent its application damages the daily life of the population. We run experiments on three data sets, and the results illustrate how the application of NPIs should be tailored to the specific epidemic situation. They further highlight the critical importance of correctly implementing personal protective (e.g., using face masks) and sanitization measures to slow down a pathogen spreading, especially in crowded places.