Constructing extreme heatwave storylines with differentiable climate models

Abstract

Abstract. Understanding the plausible upper bounds of extreme weather events is essential for risk assessment in a warming climate. Existing methods, based on large ensembles of physics-based models, are often computationally expensive or lack the fidelity needed to simulate rare, high-impact extremes. Here, we present a novel framework that leverages a differentiable hybrid climate model, NeuralGCM, to optimize initial conditions and generate physically consistent worst-case heatwave trajectories. Applied to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, our method produces heatwave intensity up to 3.7 °C above the most extreme member of a 75-member ensemble. These trajectories feature intensified atmospheric blocking and amplified Rossby wave patterns—hallmarks of severe heat events. Our results demonstrate that differentiable climate models can efficiently explore the upper tails of event likelihoods, providing a powerful new approach for constructing targeted storylines of extreme weather under climate change.