Climate change and irrigation expansion reshape the water pressure and upstream–downstream interactions in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin

Abstract

In transboundary river basins, water resource pressure results from the combined effects of internal water use growth, external transboundary withdrawal, and climate change, yet the relative contributions of these drivers to both water pressure and upstream–downstream interactions remain poorly quantified. To address this issue, this study adopts the Pressure–State–Response analytical framework to explicitly disentangle and characterize the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution of irrigation water withdrawal pressure in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin under climate change. Results indicate that the proportion of irrigation water withdrawal relative to available water exhibits a persistent increasing trend. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, this proportion is projected to rise to 19 % annually and 59 % during the dry season by 2040. Irrigation water withdrawal exerts a substantially greater reduction in water availability in downstream subregions than in upstream subregions, particularly during the dry season. In the historical period (1980–2020), internal irrigation water withdrawal pressure dominates in Subregions 1 (China), 8 (primarily in Thailand), and 13 (primarily in Vietnam), exceeding external pressure from upstream irrigation water withdrawal, whereas external irrigation-induced water appropriation is the primary driver in the remaining subregions. Under the SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios during 2021–2040, both internal and external irrigation pressures intensify across the basin, exhibiting pronounced nonlinear dynamics and spatial heterogeneity. Notably, Subregion 8 undergoes a structural shift in dominant pressure, transitioning from internally driven irrigation pressure in the historical period to externally driven irrigation appropriation in the future. Meanwhile, the growth rates of irrigation water withdrawal pressure are redistributed spatially: compared to the historical period, the growth of external irrigation pressure slows in downstream subregions (9–13), while it continues to increase in midstream and upstream subregions (2–8). The analysis identifies vulnerable components of the basin system, clarifies the spatial distribution of transboundary water pressures, and provides a basis for differentiated water governance strategies across the basin.