Do political protests mobilize voters? Evidence from the Black Lives Matter protests

Abstract

In this article, we study the local political mobilization effects of political protests in the context of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. We analyze monthly voter registration data from 2136 US counties across 32 states, leveraging variation in the exposure to BLM protests across counties in a two-way fixed-effects framework with a matched control group. In contrast to previous studies, which reported substantial mobilization effects of local protests in other contexts, we show that voter registrations in the aggregate were insensitive to the presence of local BLM protests. We further disentangle the effects along party lines and the degree to which protests were associated with violent behaviors and find similarly insignificant effects. We present some preliminary evidence that the large scale of the protests and their extensive news coverage might have reduced the importance of experiencing a protest firsthand.