Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Pada Transmetro Bandung di 4 Koridor Akibat Dampak Pembatasan Kegiatan di Kota Bandung

Abstract

The Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) regulated in Bandung Mayor Regulation Number 14 of 2020 are carried out as an effort to spread Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Trans Metro Bandung (TMB) is one of the transportation companies affected by the PSBB. This study aims to predict the number of TMB passengers in 4 corridors due to the impact of the PSBB implementation using passenger data from 2018-2020. This study uses the Arfima, Auto.arima, ETS, Holt-winters, Snaive, and TBATS time series forecasting methods. From this model, a comparison is made between empirical data and forecasting results in each corridor to calculate the decline in the number of passengers in the next 10 months, namely March-December 2020. The accuracy tests of the models used are Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Precentage. Errors (MAPE). The results showed that the holt-winters method was appropriate for predicting the number of passengers of Trans Metro Bandung in corridors 1-3, while for corridor 4 using the ETS method (A, N, N). Data on the number of passengers on Trans Metro Bandung has seasonal and trend patterns. The difference between the forecast and the actual results obtained for the period March-December 2020 in corridor 1 shows a decrease in the number of passengers by-104,719 people, corridor 2-82,109 people, corridor 3-81,677 people, and corridor 4-47,289 people. The difference in the total decrease in the number of passengers due to the impact of restrictions on activities in corridors 1-4 of Trans Metro Bandung is-315,794 people.