AMiBI: Application of Flood Mitigation in Indonesia based on the Results of Statistical Analyses of Causal Factors using Local Linear Estimators in Nonparametric Regression Model

Abstract

This article describes a new idea called AMiBI. It is a mitigation platform based on the fact that flood still becomes an annual problem in Indonesia. According to the National Disaster Management Agency or Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), 649 flood incidents occurred from 2011 until 2019 in Indonesia. Natural factors are certainly not the only main factors causing it. Environmental damage plays a more crucial role. One of the causes of this damage is the existence of settlements along the riverbanks. This factor exactly should be controlled by humans. Still, economic needs have become the main reason driving people to survive in big cities by establishing illegal settlements along riverbanks. Regarding these facts, AMiBi was also built under statistical analysis by modeling the flood incidents based on the number of settlements along riverbanks using the local linear nonparametric regression. Its result shows that the model has R2 value of 51.48% and a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 24.26. It also performs a linear relationship between those variables, which means that the existence of settlements along riverbanks significantly affects the number of flood incidents. Regarding those analyses as the basis of development, this digital platform performs several services for reducing loss potency caused and supporting the awareness to build a sustainable environment in riverbanks. Considering AMiBI as the only platform that uses statistical modeling as the basis of services and implementation, it has a significant role in supporting Indonesia as a smart country for mitigation.