Determination of priority locations to support climate change adaptation

Abstract

Climate change has had a significant impact on the agricultural sector and the impact is different in each place due to spatial variations in Indonesia. One of the efforts that must be made to reduce risk is to adapt. The purpose of this paper is to determine the key locations and their relationship to rice production for adaptation to climate change. Rainfall data and Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) are used to see the relationship between these two parameters through regression analysis and significance in El Niño and La Niña conditions. In El Niño conditions 24 key locations were obtained and in La Niña 3 priority locations. From the selected key locations, regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between rainfall and rice production. The regression results at the sample locations show a fairly high R2 value, namely 0.4 to 0.9, namely in Juntinyuat (West Java), Palasari (Bali), and Detusoko (East Nusa Tenggara). Other key locations are also found in several provinces. This key location is a priority location where the rainfall is strongly influenced by the extreme climate phenomenon El Niño and La Niña so that it can be used to assess the impact and monitor its impact on food farming. Socialization of the use of climate information to extension workers and farmers will greatly help reduce risks and increase capacity to adapt to climate change.