Flying Green by Choice: A System Dynamics Forecast of Voluntary SAF Demand Integrating Policy, Market, Demographic, and Behavioral Drivers

Abstract

This conceptual research article proposes a system dynamics-based framework to forecast the voluntary uptake of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by air passengers departing from European Union (EU) airports. Unlike existing literature that treats policy and consumer behavior in isolation, the study integrates policy mandates, fuel price dynamics, passenger demographics, and behavioral drivers into a unified conceptual model. The framework emphasizes the role of willingness-to-pay (WTP), segmenting passengers by travel purpose and environmental attitudes. Although no empirical simulation or quantitative calibration is conducted, the model structure is designed to accommodate scenario analysis and uncertainty assessment, incorporating elements such as carbon pricing, SAF-fossil fuel cost differentials, blending mandates (e.g., ReFuelEU), and marketing effectiveness. Four illustrative scenarios (baseline, high policy support, technological breakthrough, and low WTP) are outlined to demonstrate how different assumptions may shape SAF demand trajectories. Model outputs are defined conceptually and include SAF uptake share, absolute demand, CO2 savings, and abatement cost. This study does not present an empirically calibrated simulation and therefore refrains from producing quantitative forecasts. Its contribution is a rigorously specified conceptual structure intended to guide future parameterization and validation with real-world data; thus, it is intended as a foundation for future empirical research and policy experimentation. The study is offering strategic value for airlines, SAF producers, and regulators aiming to stimulate voluntary contributions to aviation decarbonization. By outlining system interactions and key sensitivities, the study advances a holistic, behaviorally informed approach to modeling voluntary SAF demand.