Technical analysis in cryptocurrency markets: Do transaction costs and bubbles matter?

Abstract

The study of technical analysis in cryptocurrencies has largely ignored the implications of often high transaction costs and bubble periods on trade rule performance. We study the daily and 1-minute returns of 69 technical trade rules in the form of moving average and breakout strategies, with and without transaction costs, during price bubbles in the 2016–2021 period. For the most profitable trade rules, we find that bubble periods increase the likelihood that Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin beat buy-and-hold, but not Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Transaction costs decrease this likelihood for Ripple and Litecoin, but increase it for Bitcoin and Ethereum.