Projection of climate change effects on flood inundation in the Gin River basin, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Human-induced climate change has altered the frequency and severity of heavy precipitation, droughts, and floods worldwide. Sri Lanka, a developing country in the Indian Ocean, has suffered frequent floods, affecting over 64 % of the population in the past decade. The Gin River, the primary drinking water source of the densely populated Galle district with over 1 million residents, faces recurrent flood disasters. Therefore, this study employed a multi-model ensemble to simultaneously simulate the impact of climate change on both river flow and inundation extent in the frequently flooded Gin River basin located in humid tropical monsoon region. Bias-corrected climate projections of an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario were used to project future river flow and flood inundation in the Gin River basin, Sri Lanka. The validated Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model projected a 5 % increase in high flows (flows exceeding a 5 % probability of exceedance (