Informing Disaster Recovery Through Predictive Relocation Modeling

Abstract

Housing recovery represents a critical component of disaster recovery, and accurately forecasting household relocation decisions is essential for guiding effective post-disaster reconstruction policies. This study explores the use of machine learning algorithms to improve the prediction of household relocation in the aftermath of disasters. Leveraging data from 1304 completed interviews conducted as part of the Displaced New Orleans Residents Survey (DNORS) following Hurricane Katrina, we evaluate the performance of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Weighted Support Vector Machine (WSVM) models. Results indicate that WSVM significantly outperforms LR and RF, particularly in identifying the minority class of relocated households, achieving the highest F1 score. Key predictors of relocation include homeownership, extent of housing damage, and race. By integrating variable importance rankings and partial dependence plots, the study also enhances interpretability of machine learning outputs. These findings underscore the value of advanced predictive models in disaster recovery planning, particularly in geographically vulnerable regions like New Orleans where accurate relocation forecasting can guide more effective policy interventions.