Modelling inflation in transportation, comunication and financial services using B-Spline time series model

Abstract

Inflation is an increase in the price of goods and services in general where the goods and services are the basic needs of society or the decline of the selling power of a country's currency. Significant inflationary increases occurred in 2013. This increase was contributed by a significant increase in some inflation sectors / groups i.e transportation, communication and financial services; the foodstuff sector, and the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel sectors. However, significant contributions occurred in the transportation, communications and financial services sectors. In the model of IFIs in the transportation, communication and financial services sector use the B-Spline time series approach, where the predictor variable is Yt, whereas the predictor is a significant lag (in this case Yt-1). In modeling B-spline time series determined the order and the optimum knot point. Optimum knot determination using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). In inflation modeling for transportation sector, communication and financial services obtained model of B-spline order 2 with 2 points knots produce MAPE less than 50%.