Recommendations for Protective Actions Based on Projected Public Health Risks Following a Postulated Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Abstract

This study conducted a regional assessment of the environmental and health consequences due to the release of radionuclides, including the most harmful, such as Cs-137 and I-131, from a hypothetical reactor accident at the first Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, in Turkiye under different meteorological conditions. Simulations of the atmospheric flow were done using a Gaussian-based probabilistic model. Based on the estimated air and land contamination, radiation doses and cancer risks to the population were calculated. The assessment results were then compared with the criteria for protective actions in the event of a radioactive release and were subsequently used to assess the sufficiency of the Precautionary Action Zone (PAZ) and Urgent Protective Zone (UPZ) provided by regulations. The assessment indicated that evacuation outside the UPZ would likely be required during the early phase of the emergency, while sheltering indoors might be necessary up to 80 km. Protective actions such as restrictions on being outdoors or iodine prophylaxis are needed far beyond the radius of the UPZ. These results provide important insights into safe protective measures to reduce the risk of radiation-related cancer when considering a hypothetical severe nuclear accident. In addition, the results of this study aim to improve the current nuclear emergency response program and support nuclear decision-making.