The effects of climate change on historical and future extreme rainfall in Antalya, Turkey

Abstract

There is an increasing concern that flood risks will be exacerbated in Antalya, Turkey as a result of global warming induced more frequent and intensive heavy rainfalls. In this paper, first, trends in extreme rainfall indices in the Antalya region were analysed using daily rainfall data. All stations in the study area showed statistically significant increasing trends for at least one extreme rainfall index. Extreme rainfall data sets for current (1970–1989) and future periods (2080–2099) were then constructed for frequency analysis using the peaks over threshold method. Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall data was performed using Generalized Pareto distribution for current and future periods in order to estimate rainfall intensities for various return periods. It was found that rainfall intensities for the future period increased by up to 23% more than the current period. This study contributed to better understanding of climate change effects on extreme rainfalls in Antalya, Turkey.