Tree Rings Reveal ENSO in the Last Millennium

Abstract

We present new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of tropical Pacific ENSO sea surface temperatures (HadISST) for the boreal winter season using a circum-Pacific tree-ring network from known El Niño rainfall impact regions. We use two different CFR methods: Point-by-Point Regression (PPR) and reduced-space Orthogonal Spatial Regression (OSR). Both methods produce reconstructions with high validation skill, but OSR is preferred because it has less spatial noise and is more efficient. Only the leading EOF of the SST field (EOF1) can be skillfully reconstructed by either method; EOF2 does not validate. The success of EOF1 reflects its importance for ENSO rainfall impacts over land; the failure with EOF2 is from the lack of these impacts. EOF1 allows for the reconstruction of many ENSO indices, including the ENSO Longitudinal Index (ELI). We also find evidence in our reconstructions for a recent increase in ENSO activity.