Backcasting-Based Method for Designing Roadmaps to Achieve a Sustainable Future

Abstract

Much attention has been paid internationally to the adoption of sustainable development goals to achieve sustainable outcomes. Although roadmapping is widely used by companies and other organizations to plan long-term strategies, relatively few studies have examined the development of roadmapping methods aiming at sustainability. To address this challenge, in this article, a backcasting-based method to design roadmaps that could be used to facilitate decision making and plan sustainable futures is proposed. By drawing on the concept of backcasting, the proposed roadmap design method consists of two phases: defining a sustainable vision, and describing the pathways that are required to realize that vision. In order to develop pathways that bridge the gap between the present and the vision, we develop a roadmap template called a 'four-arrow model.' To demonstrate the proposed method, roadmaps are developed for Japanese manufacturing from the present to 2050 by organizing an expert workshop. As a result, two different roadmaps that connected sustainable visions and associated pathways are successfully developed. The number of ideas generated through the workshop indicates that the proposed method encouraged brainstorming and concept development. Future research will focus on making the roadmap design process more comprehensive by conducting industrial case studies.