Risk assessment by analysis of extrapolation error: A demonstration for effects of pollutants on fish

Abstract

This article describes a new method for risk assessment and applies it to assessing the risk of chronic toxicity of mercury to largemouth bass. The method consists of extrapolation between taxa and between toxicity test types by regression analysis. The variance terms in the regression analyses are combined with the point estimate of the geometric mean of the maximum allowable toxic concentration (GMATC) to derive a probability distribution of the GMATC. This distribution is then compared to the ambient contaminant concentration to derive the probability or risk of chronic toxicity. This general approach to risk analysis is applicable to any organism or toxicant. Copyright © 1983 SETAC