Predicting the habitat suitability of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) under future climate scenarios

Abstract

This study aimed to predict the habitat suitability of Asian elephants in Madhesh Province, Nepal, by using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling based on the occurrence data and environmental variables, including bioclimatic, topographic, vegetation-related, and anthropogenic variables. The study was conducted under current and future climate scenarios for the year 2100. Among the districts of Madhesh Province, the largest suitable habitats for elephants are located in Rautahat district (30%) followed by Bara district (21%), with Dhanusha district having the smallest suitable area (1%). Elevation, slope, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest quarter, and temperature seasonality were identified as the most important variables affecting habitat suitability. A total of 1037.3 km2 was identified as the current highly suitable habitat for elephants, primarily in grasslands and shrublands. The results of the study depict a slight increase in highly suitable areas under the emission scenarios shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 but a severe decrease in suitable habitats and a drastic increase in unsuitable habitats. The research emphasizes the possible influence of human activities and land use on the living environment of elephants. The study, therefore, suggests that the authorities should prioritize future land use management to lessen the potential harm to the habitats of elephants and other endangered species in Nepal. It is also imperative to identify how elephants utilize their spatial habitat within their range to help park authorities devise efficient management strategies.