Progress and challenges in short-to medium-range coupled prediction

Abstract

The availability of GODAE Oceanview-type ocean forecast systems provides the opportunity to develop high-resolution, short-to medium-range coupled prediction systems. Several groups have undertaken the first experiments based on relatively unsophisticated approaches. Progress is being driven at the institutional level targeting a range of applications that represent their respective national interests with clear overlaps and opportunities for information exchange and collaboration. The applications include forecasting of the general circulation, hurricanes, extra-tropical storms, highlatitude weather and coastal air–sea interaction. In some cases, research has moved beyond case and sensitivity studies to controlled experiments to obtain statistically significant metrics and operational predictions.