The forest cover and economic development nexus in India: a cointegration perspective

Abstract

This study explores the long-run relationship between deforestation and economic development indicators in India using time series data from 1960–61 to 2014–15 and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results confirm a significant cointegrating relationship, with deforestation following an inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The income turning point (ITP) lies above the 2013–14 per capita GDP, indicating that India has moved into the EKC phase where economic growth is associated with declining deforestation. The error correction mechanism (ECM) reveals that 89% of short-run deviations in forest cover adjust toward long-run equilibrium annually, reinforcing the stability of this EKC-consistent relationship. The findings stress the importance of continued conservation efforts and strong land-use policies to sustain this positive transition.