Case Study on Improvement Measures for Increasing Accuracy of AI-Based River Water-Level Prediction Model

Abstract

Global warming is recognized as a climate crisis that extends beyond a mere increase in the Earth’s temperature, triggering rapid and widespread climatic changes worldwide. In particular, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have increased in Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, leading to a significant increase in flood damage. The growing number of large-scale hydrological disasters underscores the urgent need for accurate and rapid flood-forecasting systems that can support disaster preparedness and mitigation. Compared with conventional physics-based forecasting systems, artificial intelligence (AI) models can provide faster predictions using limited observational data. In this study, a river water-level prediction model was constructed using real-time observation data and a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm, which is a recurrent neural network-based deep learning approach suitable for hydrological time-series forecasting. A repeated k-fold cross-validation technique was applied to enhance model generalization and prevent overfitting. In addition, water-level differencing was employed to convert nonstationary water-level data into stationary time-series inputs, thereby improving the prediction stability. Water-level observation stations in the Philippines, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea were selected as study sites, and the model performance was evaluated at each location. The differenced LSTM model achieved a root mean square error of 0.13 m, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.866, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.844, and Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.893, thus outperforming the non-differenced baseline by approximately 17%. The repeated k-fold validation approach was particularly effective when the training data period was short or the number of input variables was limited. These results confirm that ensuring temporal stationarity and applying repeated cross-validation can significantly enhance the predictive accuracy of real-time flood forecasting. The proposed framework exhibits strong potential for implementation in regional early warning systems across data-limited flood-prone areas in the ASEAN region. Ongoing studies that apply and verify this approach in diverse hydrological contexts are expected to further improve and expand AI-based flood prediction models.