Disasters and divisions: how partisanship shapes policymaker responses to natural disasters

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on policymakers’ behavior, focusing on whether such events prompt a pro-environmental policy shift. Analyzing the voting behavior of all members of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1973 to 2021, this study finds that exposure to natural disasters does not directly affect the volume of environmental legislation passed post-disaster. Instead, the influence of natural disasters on politicians’ support for pro- environmental legislation is conditioned by political affiliation. Specifically, Democratic representatives are more likely to endorse green legislation as disaster frequency increases, whereas Republican representatives show decreased support in disaster-affected districts compared to disaster-free districts. These findings highlight significant partisan divides in environmental policymaking and suggest that, even in the face of catastrophic events, certain politicians may resist endorsing climate change mitigation policies. This research has important implications for the capacity of democratic institutions to address climate change effectively amidst polarized political landscapes.