Persistence in Croatian tourism: The impact of COVID-19

Abstract

This research note examines the change in the degree of persistence in the Croatian tourism indicators, foreign arrivals, and overnight stays, due to the COVID-19 pandemic using recursive estimation of a fractional integration model. The results indicate that the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic can be viewed as permanent in nature. The policy response to restore tourism to its original trend should consider whether such policies proceed as in the past with the promotion of the traditional tourism growth model or support the transformation toward a more sustainable tourism model.