Estimating growth of SMES using a logit model: Evidence from manufacturing companies in Italy

Abstract

In this paper, an effort has been put to develop a model for estimating growth based on logit regression (logit) and implemented the model to Italian manufacturing companies. Our data set consists of 8232 SMEs of Italy. To estimate the growth of the firm an innovative approach that considers annual statements issued the year before the accelerated growth has been considered as the effective estimators of firm growth. The result of the logit showed that return on asset, log (cash flow) and log (Inventory) positively affect in estimating the growth of the high growth firm whereas working capital turnover times negatively affects in estimating the growth of the firm. The discriminant power of the model using Receiver Operating Characteristics curve shows 72.35%, which means the model is fair in terms of estimating the growth.