An estimation of imported infections concerning 2002 FIFA world cup Korea/Japan

Abstract

The FIFA World Cup 2002 Korea/Japan, which will be held during May 31 through June 30, 2002, is a mass-gathering and high-profile event. The Ministry of Transport announced that approximately 430,000 people visit Japan for the event. We estimated the incidence of major imported infections using data from the national epidemiological surveillance of infectious diseases and the statistics of immigration. Estimated incidences are 5.88 (shigellosis), 3.41 (malaria), 1.40 (typhoid/paratyphoid fever), 0.42 (cholera), and 0.0032 (meningococcal meningitis). The incidence for viral hemorrhagic fever was estimated 0.0018 under assumption that "it correlates with the malaria incidence from Africa" and that "the incidence occurs every 15 years". These results indicate little possibility of remarkable increase of exotic infections during the event. These incidences, however, may occur in the rural prefectures where few cases are reported. It is highly needed to strengthen surveillance and educate physicians and public health experts especially for malaria cases.