The devil is in the detail: who is actually at risk from flooding in England and Wales?

Abstract

Published sources claim that ‘one in six’ properties are at overall flood risk in England and Wales. However, an attempt to replicate that proportion using publicly available data proved difficult, estimating one in five properties in England and one in four properties in Wales at overall flood risk, and even higher risk estimates for non-residential properties alone, especially in Wales. For comparative purposes, a primary analysis was conducted which found that the estimated fluvial and tidal flood risk for properties (residential and non-residential) is one in twelve in England and one in nine in Wales. Discussions include the importance of the unit of analysis (people/properties) and also of property type (households/businesses). This paper reveals several discrepancies in published data and proportions at risk, and will emphasise that if ‘good evidence’ is needed to inform policy, then we need to be very specific about what kinds of risk, and to whom, we are reporting.