How is climate change adaptation aid allocated? A study of climate justice in Ecuador

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the allocation of climate adaptation aid in sub-national and local jurisdictions in Ecuador. We examine the influence of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and local capacity as explanatory variables for aid allocation. As part of the study, we introduce projections of physical vulnerability to determine whether inter-generational aspects of climate justice are taken into account, and use geographically weighted regression models to study the spatial distribution of aid allocation in sub-national and local jurisdictions. The findings show that physical and socioeconomic vulnerabilities influence the allocation of adaptation aid. However, projected changes in patterns of precipitation and temperatures are not associated with this variable. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of current climate aid is uneven, leaving clusters of vulnerable jurisdictions unattended. Finally, the study finds no association between local capacity and the allocation of adaptation aid. Findings suggests a bias towards allocating more adaptation aid in areas with more intense current weather events, and that the allocation of adaptation aid may not contribute to creating adaptation scenarios where justice for current and future generations is central to decision-making.