LACE index predicts age-specific unplanned readmissions and mortality after hospital discharge

Abstract

Background: The LACE index scoring tool (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Co-morbidities and Emergency department visits) has been designed to predict hospital readmissions. We evaluated the ability of the LACE index to predict age-specific frequent admissions and mortality. Methods: Analysis of prospectively collected data of alive-discharge episodes between 01/04/2017 and 31/03/2019 in an NHS hospital. Data on 14,878 men and 17,392 women of mean age 64.0 years, SD = 20.5, range 18.0–106.7 years were analysed. The association of the LACE index with frequency of all-cause readmissions within 28 days of discharge and over a 2-year period, and with all-cause mortality within 30 days or within 6 months after discharge from hospital were evaluated. Results: Within LACE index scores of 0–4, 5–9 or ≥ 10, the proportions of readmission ≥ 2 times within 28 days of discharge were 0.1, 1.3 and 9.2% (χ2 = 3070, p < 0.001) and over a 2-year period were 1.7, 4.8 and 19.1% (χ2 = 3364, p < 0.001). Compared with a LACE index score of 0–4, a score ≥ 10 increased the risk (adjusted for age, sex and frequency of admissions) of death within 6 months of discharge by 6.8-fold (5.1–9.0, p < 0.001) among all ages, and most strongly in youngest individuals (18.0–49.9 years): adjusted odds ratio = 16.1 (5.7–45.8, p < 0.001). For those aged 50–59.9, 60–69.9, 70–79.9 and ≥ 80 years, odds ratios reduced progressively to 9.6, 7.7, 5.1 and 2.3, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for the association of LACE index with mortality within 30 days of hospital discharge. Conclusions: The LACE index predicts short-term and long-term frequent admissions and short-term and medium-term mortality, most pronounced among younger individuals, after hospital discharge.