Validation and comparison of the PECARN rule, Step-by-Step approach and Lab-score for predicting serious and invasive bacterial infections in young febrile infants

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Differentiating infants with serious bacterial infections (SBIs) or invasive bacterial infections (IBIs) from those without remains a challenge. We sought to compare the diagnostic performances of single biomarkers (absolute neutrophil count [ANC], C-reactive protein [CRP] and procalcitonin [PCT]) and 4 diagnostic approaches comprising Lab-score, Step-by-Step approach (original and modified) and Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule. METHOD: This is a prospective cohort study involving infants 0-90 days of age who presented to an emergency department from July 2020 to August 2021. SBIs were defined as bacterial meningitis, bacteraemia and/or urinary tract infections. IBIs were defined as bacteraemia and/or bacterial meningitis. We evaluated the performances of Lab-score, Step-by-Step (original and modified) and PECARN rule in predicting SBIs and IBIs. RESULTS: We analysed a total of 258 infants, among whom 86 (33.3%) had SBIs and 9 (3.5%) had IBIs. In predicting SBIs, ANC ≥4.09 had the highest sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV), while PCT ≥1.7 had the highest specificity and positive predictive value (PPV). CRP ≥20 achieved the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.741 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.672-0.810). The Step-by-Step (original) approach had the highest sensitivity (97.7%). Lab-score had the highest AUC of 0.695 (95% CI 0.621-0.768), compared to PECARN rule at 0.625 (95% CI 0.556-0.694) and Step-by-Step (original) at 0.573 (95% CI 0.502-0.644). In predicting IBIs, PCT ≥1.7 had the highest sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV. The Step-by-Step (original and modified) approach had the highest sensitivity of 100%. Lab-score had the highest AUC of 0.854 (95% CI 0.731-0.977) compared to PECARN rule at 0.589 (95% CI 0.420-0.758) and Step-by-Step at 0.562 (95% CI 0.392-0.732). CONCLUSION: CRP strongly predicted SBIs, and PCT strongly predicted IBI. The Step-by-Step approach had the highest sensitivity and NPV, while Lab-score had the highest specificity and AUC in predicting SBIs and IBIs.