Orçamentos Participativos: variáveis explicativas e novos cenários que desafiam a sua implementação

Abstract

Introduction: This paper aims to contribute to the investigations about explanatory factors of the adoption of Participatory Budgeting (PB) by Brazilian municipalities. Material and Methods: Data from the municipalities with PB extracted from the database of the Brazilian Network of Participatory Budgets (2009-2012) and socio-demographic data from all municipalities in the country (with and without PB), extracted from the IBGE Census and systematized in the IPEA Atlas Brazil (2013), werewas analysed through Principal Components Analysis and Binary Logistic Regression methods. Based on the literature, variables already known concerning institutional design, associativism and political will of the rulers are discussed. Subsequently, independent and exogenous variables regarding participation are tested, such as regionalization, size of cities, local wealth and socioeconomic development of municipalities, as well as the predominant ideology of the mayors in office. Results: On one hand, results indicate that ideological orientation, geographical region, social development, economic inequality and size of municipality interfere with the chances of adopting the PB. On the other hand, both relative economic wealth and associativism have no significant impacts. Discussion: The introduction of other variables, together with known factors test, increases the knowledge about conditions in which municipalities adopt the PB. The research indicates that cyclical and structural elements constitute a new moment of adversity for the adoption of PB. This context accentuates the declining political importance of PB in the democratization and social inclusion agenda in the country.