Understanding the value of autonomous vehicles–an empirical meta-synthesis

Abstract

Value of Time (VOT) is a key element in transport infrastructure planning decisions. It is widely believed that travellers using autonomous vehicles (AVs) will have a lower VOT than conventional vehicles (CVs) because of improved road safety, increased road capacity, engagement in productive activity during travel and increased mobility. A number of researchers have measured VOT effects of AVs though no consolidation of this evidence has been undertaken to date. This is the first study to provide a quantitative summary and synthesis of the estimated VOT of AV travel including a synthesis of factors affecting AV VOT. Meta-analyses of 24 studies show that mean VOTs for conventional cars, private AVs and shared AVs are respectively 17.3, 12.1 and 19.4 AU$/hr. However, wide variations in these estimates are evident and 12 factors have been identified with statistically significant effects on these variations including geographical context, study experimental characteristics, trip characteristics and socio-economic factors. We found that AV VOT estimates are lower when animated videos are used to demonstrate AV capabilities. Private AVs have the lowest VOT estimates as do commute trips and morning peak periods. Young adults (18–30 years) and people with current driving experience consistently report lower AV VOT while those with higher educational status and higher-incomes report having higher AV VOT. Implications of findings for policy and future research are presented.