A study of probabilistic risk evaluation for system development project based on requirements analysis and Bayesian estimation

Abstract

For building a business system quickly, more efficient project management is needed. However, uncertain and subjective factors in requirements from customer cause cost overruns or schedule delays in the project. Furthermore, uncertain and subjective factors can lead to misunderstandings and false estimates when converting requirements into specifications or scheduling within a project. Thus this paper proposes a probabilistic risk evaluation method with Requirements Analysis and Bayesian estimation for project management to accurately assess the project risk. If this method works well, efficient project management will be realized.