Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the South Atlantic Ocean and Its Connection to the South American 1991–2020 Climate

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) modes of climate variability in the South Atlantic Ocean remain a challenging topic. To improve the understanding of this subject, this study assesses the influence of two commonly discussed SST variability modes, the South Atlantic Dipole (SAD) and the Southwestern South Atlantic (SWSA), on South America (SA) during the present-day climate conditions and discusses, based on the previous literature, their development. Complementing previous analyses based on annual or seasonal scales, the analysis is performed at the monthly scale, given its relevance for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to standardized monthly SST anomalies relative to the period 1991–2020, using data from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST). After characterizing the SAD and SWSA modes, composites of different variables, such as precipitation anomalies, were constructed for the different phases of each pattern. The results show that the SAD is the dominant mode of SST variability, mainly influencing tropical latitudes by modulating the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). During its positive (negative) phase, the ITCZ shifts southward (northward). In contrast, the SWSA exhibits a more localized subtropical–extratropical structure, characterized by SST anomalies along the south–southeastern coast of Brazil, and is closely associated with variability in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The relationship between the SWSA and SACZ appears strong during the austral extended summer, when warmer waters during the positive (negative) SWSA phase are associated with wetter (drier) conditions over southeastern SA and drier (wetter) conditions over the continental and oceanic branches of the SACZ.