Advances in wind power forecasting and power loss mitigation for cold climate operation

Abstract

Key challenges related to operating wind farms in cold climates include lost power production due to ice accumulation on wind turbine blades, increased vibrations, and site safety due to the risk of ice throw. This paper presents the results of recent efforts to estimate the overall impact of cold climate impacts on wind energy in Canada, and describes the latest progress in developing an icing forecast model based on meteorological forecasts generated from the Environment and Climate Change Canada GEM-LAM mesoscale model. Two recent studies - an energy production analysis of 89 Canadian wind farms, and an operator survey of 43 wind farms - showed similar results in terms of estimated annual energy production losses due to cold climate, indicating that a good understanding of the magnitude of cold climate impacts on Canadian wind farms has been achieved. Improved forecasting offers the possibility to better manage icing events and other cold climate issues, reducing lost energy and improving overall system efficiency. The GPEO model being developed by Nergica aims to provide accurate forecasts of ice accumulation and energy loss from meteorological input data and is intended to be used by wind farms and utilities in an operational setting.