Global Stochasic Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Application to Analysis of Future Cyclone Properties due to Global Climate Change

Abstract

The scarcity of tropical cyclone data causes the difficulty of external force estimation for coastal structures. The Stochastic Tropical cyclone Model (STM) is a useful method for overcoming this problem. We developed a global STM based on IBTrACS dataset and validated the model performance for statistics of tropical cyclone data. After that, the future change estimated from 8 different General Circulation Model projections under global warming scenarios was implemented in the STM. By using the STM, we estimated the future cyclone number and magnitude quantitatively.