Re-examining Political Risk Assessments in Volatile Regions

Abstract

Conventional country risk and political risk indexes, to formalize the process, have attempted to standardize and generalize assessment models for factors that are highly context specific. Hence, the value derived from traditional political risk indexes lack precision and are therefore less reliable. This paper re-examines political risk analysis and explains how understanding the topology and nature of political risk in emerging and developing markets is a crucial advancement in developing political risk analysis for the private sector and government agencies. Particular focus is given to develop political risk characterization as a risk analysis category. To bridge the conceptual gap between risk assessment and risk management, this paper proposes the concept of complex adaptive systems as the backdrop for emerging political risk scenarios.