An attempt to estimate of probabilistic regional climate analogue in a warmer Japan

Abstract

Regional climate projections associated with global warming are of great importance for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies but are subject to a variety of uncertainties. This study developed a probabilistic strategy to consider every conceivable uncertainty in a climate analogue with the use of a pattern-scaling methodology and bootstrap resampling. The uncertainty of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which is associated with the physics and dynamics of the RCMs, is comparable to the uncertainties due to emission scenarios of the greenhouse gases and the transient climate responses of the general circulation model. Comparison of the projections between the probabilistic and deterministic viewpoints demonstrated a benefit of the former method in applications to impact studies. © 2012, Meteorological Society of Japan.