Uncertainty and tourism. A regional approach

Abstract

The aim of this article is to analyze and quantify the impact of uncertainty on tourist demand at a regional level. More specifically, with data corresponding to the period between 2000T1 and 2019T3, it estimates the elasticity of overnight stays in hotels in different Spanish Autonomous Regions in response to changes in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU). The econometric analysis performed not only confirms the inverse relationship between tourist demand and uncertainty, but also detects patterns of behavior between regions that can be geographically grouped. In general, regions with a higher number of overnight stays per inhabitant tend to be more sensitive to uncertainty.