Accelerated degradation of photovoltaic modules under a future warmer climate

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) module deployment has surged globally as a part of the transition towards a decarbonized electricity sector. However, future climate change presents issues for module degradation due to prolonged exposure to outdoor conditions. Here, we identify key degradation mechanisms of monocrystalline-silicon (mono-Si) modules and empirically model their degradation modes under various climate scenarios. Modules tend to degrade faster due to the thermal degradation mechanism. We estimate that the weighted average degradation rate will increase up to 0.1%/year by 2059. On assessing the impacts of module degradation on future PV power generation and levelized cost of energy, we project up to 8.5% increase in power loss that leads to ~10% rise in future energy price. These results highlight the need to climate-proof PV module design through careful material selection and improvements in the module manufacturing process. In particular, we recommend the use of heat dissipation techniques in modules to prevent degradation due to overheating.