Prediction of survival following percutaneous biliary drainage for malignant biliary obstruction

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drain is an intervention used to relieve malignant biliary obstruction. This study aims to explore survival after biliary drain insertion, predictive factors of survival and effectiveness to reduce total bilirubin level. METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis of 72 patients who had malignant biliary obstruction and received biliary drain during the time period between March 2005 and February 2015. RESULTS Median patients' age was 56 years. 38 (52.7%) were males, 34(47.2%) were females. Median survival post biliary drain insertion was 46 days, 95% C/I (37.92-54.02), range (2-453 days). 1, 3, and 6 month survival rates were 64.7%, 26.5%, and 7.4% respectively. Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression model showed the presence of ascites to be significant predictors of survival, other factors analyzed were: total bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalization ratio, serum albumin, pleural effusion and liver metastasis. CONCLUSION Survival after biliary drain insertion can vary from few days to few months. Presence of ascites is an independent predictor of survival after this intervention.