Prediction on the energy consumption structure in liaoning province based on system dynamics

Abstract

This paper has analyzed the influence mechanism of energy consumption structure and formed the energy consumption system from three subsystems: society and economy, energy consumption and carbon emission. Then, the paper used the theory of system dynamics to build a prediction model considering the characteristics of regional energy consumption structure. Based on the validation of the model, this paper has predicted the energy consumption structure of Liaoning province from 2019 to 2038. The results showed that under the dual effects of policy support and technological progress, the consumption proportion of coal, oil, natural gas and other fossil energy will gradually reduce, while the growth rate of carbon emissions will gradually slow down. It is suggested that the policy of “two substitutes” should be further carried out to promote the technological progress of power substitution and energy utilization.