COVID-19 and adaptive behavior of returns: evidence from commodity markets

Abstract

This study examines the Adaptive Market Hypothesis during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has impacted global economic activity, trade, and financial market activity. There has been much interest in testing financial market theories and relationships during COVID-19. Therefore, we have investigated the varying return predictability from commodities during COVID-19 concerning the adaptive market hypothesis. By applying linear and non-linear econometric models, we find a strong engagement of adaptive behavior of returns from commodities during the ongoing pandemic. The inconsistent return behavior is facilitated by dividing the sample period into different phases. Our results indicate that AMH best explains the impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets.