Geostatistical modeling of dengue disease in Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract

Dengue outbreak has become a significant mosquito-borne disease in Pakistan with the worst outbreak in the Lahore district in 2011. This situation has emerged as a serious concern for disaster management authorities, and managing risks of dengue outbreaks has become their top priority. This study investigated the relationship of the reported dengue cases in the Lahore district in 2011 with the spatial and temporal changes in climatic and environmental factors. The quantitative co-relational research method was employed to ascertain the association between dengue incidences and weather parameters, land use/cover, and demographic characteristics of the study area. Ordinary least-square and geographically weighted regression analyses were conducted to identify the influence of study variables on the dengue outbreak. Satellite and ground data were used to derive study parameters. A geostatistical dengue risk model was developed to identify the risk-prone areas in Lahore. The geographically weighted multivariate regression model indicated a statistically significant relationship between dengue cases and the built-up area and population density. These two explanatory variables explained 77.4% variance in dengue incidences. This study supported the association between the demographic parameters and distribution pattern of dengue outbreaks in the Lahore district. The dengue risk model identified the vulnerable areas that need particular attention to mitigate future outbreaks.