Food crop supply in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of climate change on supply for the four most common crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis relates crop supply, measured as cropped area, to weather, climate and prices. Crop supply functions are estimated using an error correction model (ECM) built on panel data. Crop supply through 2100 is predicted by combining estimates from the panel data analysis with climate change predictions from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). Results indicate climate change impacts on crop supplies ranging from -20 to +133% compared to a scenario of no climate change.