Probabilistic dynamic programming algorithm: a solution for optimal maintenance policy for power cables

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic dynamic programming algorithm to obtain the optimal cost-effective maintenance policy for a power cable. The algorithm determines the states which a cable might visit in the future and solves the functional equations of probabilistic dynamic programming by backward induction process. The optimisation model considers the proba-bilistic nature of cables failures. This work specifies the data needs, and presents a procedure to utilize maintenance data, failure data, cost data, and condition monitoring or diagnostic test data. The model can be used by power utility managers and regulators to assess the financial risk and schedule maintenance.