Analisis Kointegrasi Keterbukaan Perdagangan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

Abstract

The flow of globalization is a problem for almost all states in the world. Every country is currently conducting trade openness to support domestic needs and encourage economic growth. The trend of Indonesia's trade openness ratio which tends to decrease, it has not trend with Indonesia's economic growth. This study aims to analyze the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Indonesia, both in the short and long term, using various trade openness indicators. The type of research data is secondary data in an annual time series from 1980 to 2019. The method used in this study is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). All trade openness measure (exports plus imports, exports, and imports) used in this study show a positive and significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Indonesia over the long term but a negative relationship in the short term. For a long term, there has been a negative relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in Indonesia; however, there is a positive relationship in the short term. Human capital has a long term positive relationship with economic growth in Indonesia, but it is not significant in the short term. This study suggests a need for an increase in trade performance in a short term by reviving the real domestic market, increasing monitoring and cooperation from all stakeholders involved in supporting FDI, and providing easy access for people who are less able to pursue higher education.