The impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on global maize production and trade

Abstract

Climate change is becoming more and more remarkable which has an obvious impact on crop yields all over the world. Future climate scenario data was simulated by 5 climate models recommended by ISI-MIP under 4 RCP scenarios, in which the approximate scenarios with global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C were selected. Applying DSSAT and GTAP models, the per unit yield changes of maize in the world under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C were analyzed and the market prices of maize at national and global levels were simulated. The results showed that, the risk of maize yield reduction under 2.0 °C scenario was much more serious than 1.5 °C scenario; the ratios of yield changes were separately 0.18% and − 10.8% under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The reduction trend of total maize production is obvious in the top five countries and the main producing regions of the world, especially under the 2.0 °C scenario. The market price of maize would increase by around 0.7% and 3.4% under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. With the quickly increasing population in the world, it is urgent for all countries to pay enough attention to the risk of maize yield and take actions of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.