Analysis and prediction of sustainable utilization of water resources in chengde city based on system dynamics model

Abstract

In addition to the social economy and the rapid development of industry and agriculture, water demand is increasing and poses challenges in the over-exploitation of water resources. This research establishes a model to assess the sustainable exploitation of water resources based on system dynamics theory and STELLA software, which solves the imbalanced allocation of industrial water, agricultural water and domestic water. The model is composed of two parts: the water quantity system (including economy, population, water availability and water demand) and the water quality system (composed of the aquatic environment), which is suitable for Chengde City with a water resource shortage. The proposed model is established by data of Chengde City from 2007 to 2016 and is verified by 2017 data. Furthermore, in order to compare the water quality and water utilization of Chengde City under different development scenarios up to 2025, the sensitivity analysis of each variable (e.g., population) is carried out in this model, and thereby the water resource utilization scenarios are acquired. Specifically, four scenarios are designed and denoted: Scenario 1: keeping the status quo unchanged, Scenario 2: slowing down economic development and devoting more energy to environmental protection, Scenario 3: only focusing more on economic development and Scenario 4: aiming at steady and rapid economic growth and an eco-friendly environment. The results shows that Scenarios 2 and 3 facilitate high-effective water resource utilization compared with the current development, Scenario 1. Scenario 4 fosters the balance of water resources supply– demand in the future and preserves the water quality. This study provides an inspiring method for realizing the sustainable utilization and optimizing allocation of water resources in Chengde City.