Incorporation of frailty estimated by gait speed within MELD-Na and the predictive potential for mortality in cirrhosis

Abstract

Background: The 5 m gait speed (5MGS), a simple and reliable performance metric and surrogate indicator of frailty, consistently predicts adverse events in elders. Additionally, MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) scores fail to capture nutritional and functional decline of cirrhotic patients that may confer excess mortality. We hypothesized that 5MGS might be associated with all-cause mortality, and that inclusion of frailty assessment within MELD-Na could improve the prediction of mortality in cirrhosis. Methods: 5MGS was measured at baseline in 113 hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Survival status over 2 years and cirrhosis-related complications were recorded. We evaluated the prognostic value of 5MGS (as a continuous variable and as a dichotomous variable). The definition of slow versus preserved 5MGS was 0.8 ms−1 based on previous publication. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, a novel MELDNa-5MGS score was derived. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves estimated discrimination between the new score model and established prognostic indices. Results: The continuous 5MGS and slow 5MGS were independent predictors of all-cause mortality [5MGS: hazard ratio (HR) 0.133 (0.047–0.347), p < 0.001; slow 5MGS: HR 4.805 (1.536–15.026), p < 0.007]. The equation derived from Cox regression analysis was as follows: MELDNa-5MGS: MELD-Na score + 11 × slow 5MGS. The 2-year mortality in patients with high MELDNa-5MGS score was significantly higher (p < 0.001). Discriminatory power was significantly better for MELDNa-5MGS than MELD-Na score (AUC: 0.802 versus 0.724, p = 0.014 for 1 year; 0.773 versus 0.709, p = 0.044 for 2 years). Conclusion: In cirrhotic patients, 5GMS is an independent risk factor of mortality. Modification of MELD-Na to include frailty estimated by low 5GMS is related to improved prognostication of mortality.