PRICE PREDICTIONS ON RED CHILI (CAPSICUM ANNUUM) COMMODITIES IN INDONESIA

Abstract

Red chili peppers are a high-value crop, widely used for industrial needs and household consumption, leading to a continuous increase in demand. However, the instability in the availability of red chili peppers causes price and consumption fluctuations. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate not only the production aspects but also the consumption patterns of red chili peppers to enable more accurate price predictions and anticipate unexpected price changes. This study aimed to analyze the price prediction of red chili peppers based on consumption and production patterns, linked to variations in community consumption needs. The findings of this analysis are expected to serve as recommendations for balancing the demand and supply of red chili peppers. The research was conducted in Majalengka Regency, West Java Province, which was selected as the study area due to its status as one of the horticultural centers. Data were collected through direct interviews and questionnaires to farmers and red chili business actors in Majalengka Regency. The sample was determined to be 156 respondents. The analytical methods used in this study were the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Matrix Impact Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) analysis, where both methods complement and reinforce each other's results. The findings indicate that price determination for red chili peppers in Majalengka is influenced by various variables analyzed using the ANFIS and MICMAC methods. The production variable is the most dominant factor in determining red chili pepper prices, with ANFIS achieving a prediction accuracy rate of 97.5%. Additionally, MICMAC analysis revealed that household needs, the hotel and restaurant industry, catering services, and production factors significantly influence future price predictions of red chili peppers. The implications of this study suggest that farmers can design production patterns aligned with consumption trends to improve the accuracy of red chili pepper price predictions. Furthermore, the findings can serve as policy recommendations for policymakers in developing production mapping strategies and planting patterns to maintain a stable supply of red chili peppers in the market. Through this approach, a balance between production and demand can be achieved, ultimately improving farmers' welfare and preventing detrimental price fluctuations.